One or two readers brought up the subject of
As it turns out, this property represents still another example of why it remains impossible to definitively declare the exact percentage that Greenwich real estate prices have declined…
Statistician Harvey Motulsky* wrote, “Outliers make statistical analysis difficult”.
But it’s worse than that; examples such as this are more than mere “outliers”, there are far too many of them. So if your goal is an accurate market pronouncement, your only hope is to qualify your judgement based on specific sections and neighborhoods. Anything else is guesswork and hogwash.
Taking all that into account, what can we say about 272 Riverside Avenue? Well, here are the last two sale prices…
Price difference = $150,000 or about a 4% decline since 2008. That’s Riverside, that’s new construction. What about backcountry neighborhoods like the upper Riversville Road area? Up there you might very well see evidence of as much as a 25% decline from 2007.
The moral of the story is, if you’re buying now, you won’t get very far if your mindset is some town-wide percentage decline. No such number exists. It depends on where you’re looking.
How much has the market declined? As the saying goes, it’s all over the map.
*Author and Medical Doctor Harvey Motulsky wrote Intuitive Biostatistics: A Nonmathematical Guide To Statistical Thinking