On the other hand, there was the late, great Bill Ziff, billionaire publisher. He was so good at guessing what people were going to want to read, people would ask him if he could predict the future. He explained it this way:
“I just saw things as they were in the present, while others only looked at the past”.
Bill Ziff was very, very successful, so let’s think about that quote for a moment. A child puts its hand on a hot stove once, and learns not to do it again, that’s an example of the teaching value of past experiences. But for your investment decisions, are you really looking at things as they are right now, or are you focused on the past? (Or, worse still, trying to predict the future.)
Anyway, I had a point to make about real estate, dammit, and here it is: There are presently 50, yes, FIFTY unsold spec houses sitting around on the Greenwich market, and each one of them was built by someone who had to at least try and predict the future. The question they answered yes to was, will Greenwich continue to be desirable to the wealthy?
Last year, the spec builders got it right, particularly in the $3M-$5M range, where we had 14 sales. Over all, 33 new-construction spec sales occurred, so that is a healthy market. But what about 2017? Will the rich folks be there for us, or will Hartford continue its quest to drive them away?
I want you to look at things as they are right now…got it? Ok, so what’s your prediction?
Here are additional samples of those 50 on the market…